Oscar Predictions

A week from today is my very favorite holiday: Oscar night! In anticipation, here is a list of who will win, who might pull off an upset and who should win. This years ceremony is looking as predictable as last years. Although, here's hoping for some major upsets. The only race that seems to be anyone's game right now is Best Picture. Last year I went six for six with my predictions of the major categories. Let's see how I fair out this year.

Best Actress
Penelope Cruz - Volver
Judi Dench - Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren - The Queen
Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet - Little Children
Who WILL win - Helen Mirren. She's the biggest lock since Titanic for Best Picture. I wouldn't bet against her if I were you.
Who MIGHT win - No one else even has a chance.
Who SHOULD win - Mirren really is that good. She lives up to all the hype and definitely deserves the Oscar.

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio - Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole - Venus
Will Smith - The Pursuit of Happyness
Forset Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland
Who WILL win - Forest Whitaker is winning every other award. It seems very hard for anyone else to beat him.
Who MIGHT win - Peter O'Toole (close to 80 films, 7 Oscar nominations, no wins) could be a sentimental favorite.
Who SHOULD win - In a year where a lot of people gave one great and award worthy performance, Leonardo DiCaprio gave two. AND he got nominated for the lesser of those performances.

Best Supporting Actress
Adriana Barraza - Babel
Cate Blanchett - Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi - Babel
Who WILL win - Jennifer Hudson is the one to beat at this point... unless the Academy realizes that this is an acting competition and not a singing competition. Are they really prepared to imply that an American Idol reject is a better actress than Cate Blanchett?
Who MIGHT win - Everyone seems to love Little Miss Sunshine and Abigail Breslin (although I'm still trying to figure out why exactly). This is a category that is unpredictible and loves young children (see also Anna Paquin for The Piano).
Who SHOULD win - Barraza and Kikuchi are the heart and soul of Babel. Barraza is part of the most memorable and emotionally jarring scenes of the film and Kikuchi shows such subtlety without ever uttering a word. Can we call it a tie?

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley - Little Children
Djimon Hounsou - Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg - The Departed
Who WILL win - Eddie Murphy has got the lead and seems to be the one to beat... BUT Norbit could hurt him really bad. (Personally, I think they should take his nomination away because of that movie).
Who MIGHT win - It really depends on just how much the Academy loves Little Miss Sunshine. Alan Arkin could get it.
Who SHOULD win - Paul Dano... oh, wait. I almost forgot - they DIDN'T nominate the best performance from Little Miss Sunshine! In that case, Mark Wahlberg if only for his delivery of the line, "Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe fuck yourself."

Best Director
Clint Eastwood - Letters From Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears - The Queen
Paul Greengrass - United 93
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - Babel
Martin Scorsese - The Departed
Who WILL win - Martin Scorsese. At least there better finally be some justice in this world.
Who MIGHT win - Well, the Academy loves Clint Eastwood the way I love Woody Allen.
Who SHOULD win - Scorsese. But then, he should have at least two Oscars by now. Plus, The Departed is his best work since Goodfellas. And, I don't want to live in a world where Halle Berry has an Oscar and Martin Scorsese does not.

Best Picture
Babel
The Departed
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
Who WILL win - It's really hard to say. There's no clear frontrunner so I'm going to give it to Babel over The Departed by just a hair.
Who MIGHT win - Again, it depends just how much the Academy loves Little Miss Sunshine.
Who SHOULD win - The Departed was as flawless a film as made in the last ten years, at least.