Oscar Rankings and Predictions

I know I've been M.I.A. lately and there have been two reasons for that: 1) There hasn't been any movies worth my time in theaters, and 2) It's been a long, cold, snowy winter here on the East Coast and I've barely left my house for the last two months (it doesn't look like it's letting up anytime soon, either). But I'm back because my favorite holiday is this weekend: Oscar Sunday!! Once again, I've seen nearly all of the nominated films in the major six categories, so below, I've ranked them from best to worst. Also, every year my friend Dane and I have an Oscar party and we always try to see who can predict the most winners correctly. I'm not very good at this (I always pick who I want to win, I think) but below I've tried to pick who will win (and should!) in the same major six categories. Maybe I can help with your Oscar party! (On second thought, don't listen to me at all!)

BEST PICTURE
01. Her
02. The Wolf of Wall Street
03. 12 Years a Slave
04. Captain Phillips
05. Dallas Buyers Club
06. Gravity
07. Philomena
08. American Hustle
09. Nebraksa (N/A)
Who WILL Win: Right now, it looks like this might be the closest race in years. Earlier this year at the Producers Guild Awards (which is the best predictor of Oscar), Gravity and 12 Years a Slave tied for Best Picture. It was the first tie ever. That's how close things are. All the Oscar pundits are predicting Gravity, but I honestly can't see a way a movie with virtually no story (sure, it looks great) wins, so I'm all in on 12 YEARS A SLAVE.
Who SHOULD Win: Her was my favorite movie of the year, but frankly it's way too weird for Oscar. I'd be find with 12 Years a Slave winning big, but I'd prefer if THE WOLF OF WALL STREET took home the big prize. But, I'm not sure the Academy will vote for a movie that wild and crazy.

BEST DIRECTOR
01. Martin Scorsese - The Wolf of Wall Street
02. Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave
03. Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity
04. David O. Russell - American Hustle
05. Alexander Payne - Nebraks (N/A)
Who WILL Win: Again, this is probably a tight race between McQueen and Cuaron, but the one thing about Gravity that works is the technical achievements and it took a great director to truly reign in all the special effects, and truly effective performance, so I think ALFONSO CUARON takes home the gold.
Who SHOULD Win: I've said it before and I'll say it again- MARTIN SCORSESE is 70 years old and still making fresh, young, wild, out of control, brilliant films.

BEST ACTOR
01. Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club
02. Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street
03. Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave
04. Christian Bale - American Hustle
05. Bruce Dern - Nebraska (N/A)
Who WILL Win: The only way the winner of this category will be a surprise is if Christian Bale somehow manages to win on Sunday. That is NOT going to happen. (You can listen to me on this one, anyway). Any of the other four actors could win, but I think all the momentum is still with MATTHEW MCCONAUGHEY and his amazing performance as a homophobic AIDS patient who changes peoples lives for the better.
Who SHOULD Win: Listen, I loved McConaughey's performance, but I've been a fan of LEONARDO DICAPRIO for decades and he deserves an Oscar and he deserves it now. His performance is absolutely mesmerizing, a live-wire, can't be contained, balls to the wall sort of performance. I'm secretly hoping he FINALLY wins it all this weekend.

BEST ACTRESS
01. Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine
02. Sandra Bullock - Gravity
03. Judi Dench - Philomena
04. Amy Adams - American Hustle
05. Meryl Streep - August: Osage County (N/A)
Who WILL Win: This category is all about CATE BLANCHETT and her amazing performance in Blue Jasmine.
Who SHOULD Win: This is one category where I agree with the probable future outcome. No one deserves a win here like CATE BLANCHETT.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
01. Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave
02. Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club
03. Bradley Cooper - American Hustle
04. Jonah Hill - The Wolf of Wall Street
05. Barkhad Abdi - Captain Phillips
Who WILL Win: This is the biggest lock of the night. There is no way anyone besides JARED LETO is walking home with that statue.
Who SHOULD Win: I love Leto and think he absolutely deserves the gold, but I would give my vote (just barely) to MICHAEL FASSBENDER and his villainous, evil plantation owner role.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
01. Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave
02. Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine
03. June Squibb - Nebraksa (N/A)
04. Julia Roberts - August: Osage County (N/A)
05. Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle [Yes, I've seen American Hustle, but I'm confident both Squibb and Roberts' unseen performances (by me) are better.]
Who WILL Win: This one is probably down to the wire between Nyong'o and her absolutely revelatory performance as a slave and Lawrence and her over the top, campy performance as a bored housewife. Lawrence completely ruined Hustle for me and I honestly can't believe this many people have been fooled into thinking that's a good performance. She very well might win back to back gold, but I'm hoping LUPITA NYONG'O edges her out, just barely.
Who SHOULD Win: This was an absolutely atrocious year for Supporting Actresses and the only of these five worthy of gold is LUPITA NYONG'O.