Oscar Predictions!!

So, Sunday is my favorite night of the year - Oscar night! I always try my best to predict who is going to win in the big six categories and I usually do fairly well. Last year, I was 4 for 6 (I predicted Eddie Murphy eventhough I wanted Alan Arkin and I was stupid enough to not pick The Departed for Best Picture eventhough it was the best and my favorite movie of the year). Anyway, I hope to go 6 for 6 this year. Here are my predictions...


Best Picture
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Who WILL win - No Country For Old Men has won all the major awards so far this year and is heavily favored. Plus, surprisingly, it actually deserves all the praise and awards!
Who MIGHT win - There Will Be Blood topped pretty much every critical top ten list of the year. Then there is Juno which is beloved, the biggest nominated money maker and the only nominee NOT super depressing!
Who SHOULD win - Honestly, I'd be satisfied with No Country, There Will Be Blood or Juno walking away with it. Or Atonement for that matter. They are all great films (I still don't love Michael Clayton the way everyone else apparently does). But I'm slightly more enamored with There Will Be Blood than the others.
Who got SCREWED - Into the Wild. I mean, did people watch that movie? They couldn't have because from a purely impartial stand point, it was better than at least two of the nominated films. Of course, I think it was the best movie of 2007 but whatever.


Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Joel and Ethan Coen - No Country For Old Men
Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman - Juno
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Who WILL win - I think this is the Coen Bros. award to lose.
Who MIGHT win - I could see a PTA or Schnabel upset happening.
Who SHOULD win - Again, I love There Will Be Blood slightly more than No Country so I'm pulling for Paul Thomas Anderson and his oil epic.
Who got SCREWED - Sean Penn. And I'm not just saying that because I love him. Into the Wild was his labor of love and it was epic and beautiful. To nominate Reitman over Sean Penn is just a joke to me.


Best Actor
George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises
Who WILL win - Daniel Day-Lewis will drink your milkshake and take your Oscar too!
Who MIGHT win - Umm... these guys just don't have a chance. Start practicing your gracious loser face and your "It's an honor just to be nominated..." speech.
Who SHOULD win - Day-Lewis. No doubt!
Who got SCREWED - My boyfriend Emile Hirsch. But then, I'm not sure who I would change him out for. It's a strong category. Who am I kidding? I'd get rid of Clooney in a heartbeat.

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie - Away From Her
Marion Cotillard - La Vie En Rose
Laura Linney - The Savages
Ellen Page - Juno
Who WILL win - I think this is essentially a two horse race - Christie and Cotillard. I'm not sure who is more favored or whatever. It's essentially Cotillard's mimicry and great physical transformation vs. Christie's legendary status paired with the clearly superior performance (ha!). I'm going Christie.
Who MIGHT win - Cotillard, obviously. Then there's the Ellen Page factor. The Academy loves young actresses so she's got a chance.
Who SHOULD win - Christie. But I'd be happy with Page as well.
Who got SCREWED - In my interesting / crazy little world, Cotillard and Blanchett would be bumped for Christina Ricci in Black Snake Moan and Ashley Judd in Bug.

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem - No Country For Old Men
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
Who WILL win - Bardem. It'll be his 3 millionth totally deserved award this year.
Who MIGHT win - They love to honor veterans in this category (see also: Alan Arkin last year) so watch out for Hal Holbrook who is holding it down for Into the Wild all by his lonesome.
Who SHOULD win - Bardem, friendo.
Who got SCREWED - Paul Dano. He totally held his own against the master actor Daniel Day-Lewis. He was pure gold in that movie and Hoffman just outright stole his spot here!

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Ruby Dee - American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
Who WILL win - You know what? This is the only category where I can really see any one of them taking it home. But after the SAG upset, I think I'm going to have to go with Ruby Dee.
Who MIGHT win - Again, any one of them. However, I think Blanchett and Ryan have been the frontrunners all season.
Who SHOULD win - Blanchett. All of these ladies give fine performances but none of them play Bob Dylan.
Who got SCREWED - It would be nice to see Jennifer Garner for Juno or Catherine Keener for Into the Wild... but it's a pretty solid category.

In summary.... Who I think WILL win
Best Picture - No Country For Old Men
Best Director - Joel and Ethan Coen for No Country For Old Men
Best Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis for There Will Be Blood
Best Actress - Julie Christie for Away From Her
Best Supporting Actor - Javier Bardem for No Country For Old Men
Best Supporting Actress - Ruby Dee for American Gangster