Oscar Predictions!!

My favorite day of the year is just over a week away - Oscar night!!! I've been battling between playing it safe and being risky. But, I want to beat Dane this year :) so I guess I'll play it safe. What follows is my final decisions on who will win (and who should win) the Oscar come next Sunday... [Winners in Bold]

BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost / Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Who WILL win: Slumdog Millionaire. Let's face it, if there was an Oscar for best craft services, Slumdog would probably win it. (Can you tell I'm a little sick of Slumdog fever?).
Who SHOULD win: Milk. There was no movie more moving or politically timely this year. Featuring amazing performances, direction and writing, Milk is the best of this nominated bunch (and of the year, I think).
Who MIGHT win: The Academy loves Holocaust films so I wouldn't count out The Reader.
Who was SCREWED: I think everyone thought The Dark Knight would sneak in here.

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry - The Reader
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard - Frost / Nixon
Gus Van Sant - Milk
Who WILL win: I really want to be risky here and pick someone else (*cough* Daldry *cough*) but I guess I'll play it safe and go with... Gus Van Sant! No, I'm kidding. It looks like Danny Boyle has this one in the bag eventhough he's directed at least two films that are better than Slumdog Millionaire.
Who SHOULD win: My deep and unending love for Gus Van Sant aside, I think Daldry directed the hell out of The Reader. I had my problems with the film... but his direction was not one of them.
Who MIGHT win: Daldry could possibly sneak in there again. The Academy seems to love him (he's directed three movies and he's been nominated for Best Director three times) and maybe they are as sick of Slumdog as I am? Maybe...
Who was SCREWED: Christopher Nolan. Hands down. Even if the stuffy Academy members didn't want to nominated a "comic book movie" for Best Picture, Nolan most definitely should have gotten Howard's spot on this list for Best Director.

BEST ACTOR
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost / Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
Who WILL win: This is the one I'm having the most difficulty with. It's clearly down to Sean and Mickey. This will probably be the closest vote in recent history. I might really kick myself come Oscar night for going against my movie star boyfriend, but I'm going to go with Mickey Rourke for the win.
Who SHOULD win: Sean Penn. His performance as Harvey Milk is so unlike anything he's ever done. He just disappears within this man and gives an incredible, incredible performance.
Who MIGHT win: Sean Penn. Like I said, I think it's going to be insanely close.
Who got SCREWED: You can't really argue with this line up although I would switch out Brad Pitt for Leonardo DiCaprio who was amazing in Revolutionary Road.

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - The Reader
Who WILL win: I think everyone agrees that it's Winslet's year.
Who SHOULD win: Honestly, Anne Hathaway. She had the most to work with (taking a very hateable character and walking a fine line between being a complete narcisist and charmer) and she did the best job with it.
Who MIGHT win: Meryl Streep.
Who got SCREWED: I would have liked to have seen Kate nominated for Revolutionary Road instead. Something about that performance just stuck with me.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road
Who WILL win: If it was any other year, at least half of these guys would actually have a shot in hell. But it's not. So Heath. Hands down.
Who SHOULD win: Heath. He's probably the only true lock of the night.
Who MIGHT win: Umm... Heath.
Who got SCREWED: I actually adore this category... especially since the Academy included Michael Shannon!!!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams - Doubt
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
Who WILL win: This one is tough... and maybe completely wide open. I think it's probably the only category where any one of the nominees has an equal chance at winning. I'm going to go with Penelope Cruz on this one, though.
Who SHOULD win: Again, you can make a case for any of these women. Cruz gave one of my favorite performances of the year though so I think it should go to her.
Who MIGHT win: Again, wide open. Anyone could walk away with it. I think the closest competition is probably Viola Davis and she could very well win on Oscar night.
Who got SCREWED: No one really. This is a great category. At least the Academy got the supporting acting categories right this year! That's one thing they have going for them at least.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost / Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire - Simon Beaufoy

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk- Dustin Lance Black
Wall-E

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E

BEST ART DIRECTION
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Milk
Revolutionary Road

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)
Encounters at the End of the World
The Garden
Man on Wire
Trouble the Water

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The Conscience of Nhem En
The Final Inch
Smile Pinki
The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306

BEST FILM EDITING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost / Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Baader Meinhof Complex
The Class
Departures
Revanche
Waltz with Bashir

BEST MAKEUP
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Hellboy II: The Golden Army

BEST MUSIC (SCORE)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Defiance
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E

BEST MUSIC (SONG)
"Down to Earth" - Wall E
"Jai Ho" - Slumdog Millionaire
"O Saya" - Slumdog Millionaire
NOTE: The person who SHOULD win here is not even nominated... how the Academy could outright snub Bruce Springsteen's The Wrestler is such a tragedy. That was the best song from a movie this year. /End rant.
Also: Looks like Slumdog will lose at least one award... it's nominated against itself so it can't win EVERYTHING... unless they just create a tie so they can literally give Slumdog every award on the planet. /End second rant.

BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
La Masion En Petits Cubes
Lavatory - Lovestory
Oktapodi
Presto
This Way Up

BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
Auf Der Strecke (On the Line)
Manon on the Asphalt
New Boy
The Pig
Spielzeugland (Toyland)

BEST SOUND EDITING
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
Wanted

BEST SOUND MIXING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
Wanted

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man