Oscar Rankings and Predictions

The Oscars are this Sunday... finally! While I'm happy this year is a bit unpredictable, it's also not fun because I KNOW I'm going to lose on my Oscar ballot at my party this weekend. Anyway, this is the first year that I've seen almost everything nominated in the main 6 six categories (I'm only missing 4 out of 34). So, here are my rankings in each of those categories (from best to worst, obviously) as well as my (probably) terrible predictions.

Best Picture
01. Zero Dark Thirty
02. Argo
03. Beasts of the Southern Wild
04. Django Unchained
05. Silver Linings Playbook
06. Life of Pi
07. Lincoln
08. Les Miserables
09. Amour (N/A)
Who Will Win: It seems momentum has shifted away from Lincoln (the borefest) and towards Argo. The only problem with this is that I actually would like it if Argo won so it probably won't. None of the films I have wanted to win has done so in the past few years. So I'm going with Lincoln because that (besides Les Mis pulling off some super upset) is the option that would piss me off the most.
Dark Horse: I think Argo, Silver Linings Playbook and Life of Pi could all conceivably win in this category. (And I would prefer any of those to Lincoln).

Best Director
01. Ang Lee - Life of Pi
02. Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild
03. David O'Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
04. Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
05. Michael Haneke - Amour (N/A)
Who Will Win: Since Ben Affleck has won every other award and he's not even nominated here, again, it's hard to say. I'm thinking it's down to Spielberg and Lee at this point.
Dark Horse: Michael Haneke is a bad ass and so revered that he could probably pull off the upset.

Best Actor
01. Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
02. Denzel Washington - Flight
03. Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
04. Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
05. Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
Who WilL Win: Day-Lewis has got his third Oscar all locked up.
Dark Horse: I guess if there's an upset, it will be Phoenix. But besides Adele winning Best Song for Skyfall, this is the nights biggest lock.

Best Actress
01. Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
02. Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
03. Q. Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild
04. Naomi Watts - The Impossible
05. Emanuelle Riva - Amour (N/A)
Who Will Win: Again, who even knows. This category seems pretty wide open between Lawrence vs. Chastain vs. Riva.
Dark Horse: I'm still leaning towards Watts pulling off the big upset. Anyone with kids will likely vote for her.

Best Supporting Actor
01. Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained
02. Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
03. Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook
04. Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
05. Alan Arkin - Argo
Who Will Win: I have no freaking idea... Jones??
Dark Horse: Again, I can see any one of these guys winning. This has to be the most wide open, unpredictable category of the night.

Best Supporting Actress
01. Amy Adams - The Master
02. Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
03. Sally Field - Lincoln
04. Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook
05. Helen Hunt - The Sessions (N/A)
Who Will Win: Hathaway, who will give another terribly earnest speech which will remind me again why I just can't give in to liking her.
Dark Horse: Field could certainly win this thing. But this seems like a two person race more than anything.

Oscar Nominations and Thoughts

Best Picture
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
THOUGHTS - Once you see the director category, it's pretty plain that Lincoln already has Best Picture wrapped up. Call it a day. There are at least five movies on this list better than Lincoln, but whatever.

Best Director
Michael Haneke - Amour
Ang Lee - Life of Pi
David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
Behn Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild
THOUGHTS - No Katherine Bigelow, no Ben Affleck?!?! WHAT?!?! Glad to see Zeitlin in there though.

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
Denzel Washington - Flight
THOUGHTS - Now I don't feel so bad about missing out on the Sessions since John Hawkes was replaced with Phoenix. But I've seen all these movies and this seems about right.

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
Q. Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild (Sorry, too lazy to check spelling!)
Naomi Watts - The Impossible
THOUGHTS - This sounds about right. Happy to see Wallis in there. I'm calling it now - Watts is going to win this thing.

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin - Argo
Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained
THOUGHTS - I was hoping this category would have a few surprises - LEO! JASON CLARKE! EWAN! But, whatever. It's fine. Go DeNiro!

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams - The Master
Sally Field - Lincoln
Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook
THOUGHTS - They must have loved Silver Linings, huh? I love anyone from Animal Kingdom, and Weaver in particular so I'm glad she bumped out Kidman for the final spot.

Other random thoughts - No Perks of Being a Wallflower in Adapted Screenplay and no Looper in Original and that bums me out. But I am ready to hear the phrase, "Academy Award Winner Adele" re: Original Song.

Golden Globes Nominees & Thoughts

Subtitled: It Seems Like the Only Person Who Wants to Give Jason Clarke Any Loving is ME!

Best Picture - Drama
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Thoughts - Glad to see SOMEONE finally liking Django Unchained. I'm psyched to finally see it next week!

Best Actor - Drama
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Richard Gere - Arbitrage
John Hawkes - Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
Denzel Washington - Flight
Thoughts - Richard Gere??? THAT changes everything!

Best Actress - Drama
Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
Helen Mirren - Hitchcock
Naomi Watts - The Impossible
Rachel Weisz - The Deep Blue Sea
Thoughts - I guess I'll have to suffer through The Deep Blue Sea. I attempted to watch it a few months ago but only made it through 20 minutes. I can't imagine how anyone sat through it long enough to figure out whether or not Weisz was good or not.

Best Picture - Comedy or Musical
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Les Miserables
Moonrise Kingdom
Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
Silving Linings Playbook
Thoughts - Despite my love for Ewan McGregor, I really have NO interest in seeing this Yemen fishing movie.

Best Actress - Comedy or Musical
Emily Blunt - Salmon Fishing in Yemen
Judi Dench - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Maggie Smith - Quartet
Meryl Streep - Hope Springs
Thoughts - Guilt Trip must be REAL bad if even the Globes didn't nominate Streisand in this category.

Best Actor - Comedy or Musical
Jack Black - Bernie
Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
Bill Murray - Hyde Park on Hudson
Ewan McGregor - Salmon Fishing in Yemen
Thoughts - I really thought Bernie was insufferable. And I've heard that Hyde Park on Hudson was terrible. This category is a bit cray.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams - The Master
Sally Field - Lincoln
Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
Nicole Kidman - The Paperboy
Thoughts - Kidman again! Perhaps this is the list that will transfer over to the Oscars?

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin - Argo
Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained
Thoughts - Finally, Leo!

Best Director
Ben Affleck - Argo
Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee - Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
Quentin Tarantino - Django Unchained

Screen Actors Guild Awards - Nominees and Thoughts

Critics groups have been announcing their nominees and winners for weeks now, but today marks the real start of award season as the Screen Actors Guild Awards announced their nominations. I'm told that Zero Dark Thirty and Django Unchained did not get their screeners out in time so that may be why there isn't a lot of love for them (disappointingly). Anyway, here are the movie nominees along with my thoughts on the whole things.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
John Hawkes - The Sessions
Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
Denzel Washington - Flight
Thoughts - Right off the bat, the big omission is no Joaquin Phoenix for The Master, a performance that some thought early off would be an Oscar winning sure thing. While I liked his performance a whole lot, I prefered the other performances from that film so maybe his weirdo ticky warts and all performance was more divisive than people first thought.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren - Hitchcock
Naomi Watts - The Impossible
Thoughts - I've seen NONE of these movies. I would like to see at least 4 of them (well, really, all of them) but unfortunately I live in the sticks so it's going to take a while. Based on my eagerness for Zero Dark Thirty, however, I'm rooting for Jessica!

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin - Argo
Javier Bardem - Skyfall
Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Thoughts - Kinda shocked and surprised to see Bardem for Skyfall. I thought he was great in the movie but not award worthy great. Sort of like Anne Hathaway in The Dark Knight Rises. The two male performances I'm most eager about this year failed to make the cut too - Jason Clarke in Zero Dark Thirty and Leonardo DiCaprio in Django Unchained. Hopefully, it was just because a lot of people didn't get their screeners and these two can still gain some Oscar traction.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Sally Field - Lincoln
Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
Nicole Kidman - The Paperboy
Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Thoughts - Shocked by the inclusion of Kidman. I guess all these awards nominations and critics groups are really trying to make me sit through The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, huh? Fine, I'll do it!

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Argo
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Thoughts - Les Mis and Silver Linings have the star studded casts, Marigold has the respected older actors, but literally every working character actor in Hollywood was either in Argo or Lincoln, so I'm pulling for one of those two.

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
The Amazing Spider-Man
The Bourne Legacy
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Miserables
Skyfall
Thoughts - Anyone this awards season who includes The Dark Knight Rises in anything at all is okay in my book.

Oscar Nominations

Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
THOUGHTS - I predicted seven nominees and the seven I predicted are part of this group of nine.

Best Actor
Demian Bichir - A Better Life
George Clooney - The Descendants
Jean Dujardin - The Artist
Gary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt - Moneyball
THOUGHTS - I sort of for saw Oldman taking out Fassbender and Leo but I never even heard of this Bichir guy. WTH!?

Best Actress
Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis - The Help
Rooney Mara - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams - My Week With Marilyn
THOUGHTS - I'm pleasantly surprised to see Mara, although it means no Charlize. I predicted last year that she would be nominated for playing Lisbeth but her lack of precursor support really surprised me.

Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh - My Week With Marilyn
Jonah Hill - Moneyball
Nick Nolte - Warrior
Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Max Von Sydow - Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
THOUGHTS - No Brooks surprises me although there doesn't seem to be much love for Drive in the nominations. I haven't seen Extremely Loud but I do have an older man crush on Von Sydow so yay!

Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo - The Artist
Jessica Chastain - The Help
Melissa McCarthy - Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer - Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer - The Help
THOUGHTS - No Shailene makes me upset. I think that's the biggest snub of the day for me, even more so than Fassbender or DiCaprio. I'm shocked to see McCarthy even though I loved her in that role. It doesn't scream Oscar.

Best Director
Woody Allen - Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazawhatever - The Artist
Terrence Malick - The Tree of Life
Alexander Payne - The Descendants
Martin Scorsese - Hugo
THOUGHTS - I think this is exactly what I predicted so yay. But boo for no Fincher!